Predictions for July 2013 -- Country Watchlists
The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until May 2013. The models are based on an in-sample calibration period up until September 2012 and a test period from October 2012 through May 2013. Based on the statistical models we then make forecasts for 6 months into the future, here we focus on our forecasts for the five EOIs for July 2013.
The forecasts below are based on the hierarchical models for the five EOIs in the current CRISP package version. The countries listed are the three countries associated with the highest risk in July for each EOI, or all countries with a probability of occurrence higher than 0.9. Moreover only countries that did not have an actual incidence of the EOI in question are listed in the respective watch list.
Insurgency Paraguay (p=0.97), Chad (0.96), Nepal (0.85)
Rebellion Yemen (p=0.97), Kenya (0.55), Iran (0.43)
Domestic Crisis Argentina (p=0.99), Venezuela (0.99), Madagascar (0.97), Paraguay (0.96) Cambodia (0.91), Niger (0.90)
Ethnic Violence Egypt (p=0.62), Sri Lanka (0.54), China (0.33)
International Crisis Iraq (p=0.99), Bangladesh (0.99), Burundi (0.96), Chad (0.92)