Biblio

Metternich, Nils W, et al. In Press. “Anti-Government Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures affect Conflictual Behavior”. American Journal of Political Science tbd(tbd): tbd.

Bakke, Kristin M, et al. 2013. “Convincing State-Builders? Disaggregating International Legitimacy in Abkhazia”. International Studies Quarterly.

Cao, Xun, and Ward, Michael D. 2013. “Do Democracies Attract Portfolio Investment?”. International Interactions.

Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Ward, Michael D. 2013. “Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future: Using contentious issues to forecast interstate disputes”. Journal of Peace Research: 1-15.

Ward, Michael D, Ahlquist, John S, and Rozenas, Arturas. 2013. “Gravity's Rainbow: A Dynamic Latent Space Model for the World Trade Network”. Network Science 1(1): tbd.

Metternich, Nils W, Dickenson, Matt, and Radford, Ben. 2012. “Broken promise? Temporal disaggregation and the explanation of conflict dynamics”.

Ward, Michael D, Hollenbach, Florian M, and Metternich, Nils W. 2012. “A Copula Approach to Missing Data”.

Schultz, Anna, Metternich, Nils W, and Ward, Michael D. 2012. “Endogenous choices: Local tax rates, state capacity, and the decision to fight”.

Montgomery, Jacob M, Hollenbach, Florian M, and Ward, Michael D. 2012. “Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Elections”. PS: Political Science 45(4): 651-654.

Chiba, Daina, Metternich, Nils W, and Ward, Michael D. 2012. “Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End”.

Metternich, Nils W, et al. 2012. “Firewall or Wall on Fire? Borders and the Risk of Conflict Spillovers”.

Ward, Michael D, et al. 2012. “Geographical Models of Crises: Evidence from ICEWS”. In Advances in Design for Cross-Cultural Activities, Part I, Advances in Design for Cross-Cultural Activities, Part I, eds. Dylan D Schmorrow and Denise M Nicholson. Boca Raton, FL, p. 429-438.

Montgomery, Jacob M, Hollenbach, Florian M, and Ward, Michael D. 2012. “Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging”. Political Analysis 20(3): 271-291.

Ward, Michael D, et al. 2012. “Learning from the past and stepping into the future: The next generation of crisis prediction”. Ward Lab Working Papers.

Dorff, Cassy, and Ward, Michael D. 2012. “Networks, Dyads, and the Social Relations Model”. : tbd.

Ward, Michael D, Metternich, Nils W, and Beger, Andreas. 2012. “Regime-Altering Instabilities”.

Montgomery, Jacob M, Hollenbach, Florian M, and Ward, Michael D. 2012. “Say Yes to the Guess: Tailoring Elegant Ensembles on a Tight (Data) Budget”. In Annual Non-Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Annual Non-Meeting of the American Political Science Association,.

Greenhill, Brian D, Ward, Michael D, and Sacks, Audrey. 2011. “The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models”. American Journal of Political Science 55(4): 991-1002.