Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election
Submitted by Mike Ward on September 28, 2012 - 6:54am
We use ensemble methods to combine ten various forecasts of the US election, the most recent being almost two months prior to the November 2012 election. Based on this combination, and the component models, we estimate a 0.60 probability that the popular vote for the incumbent will be greater than 50%.