December 2013 CRISP Predictions

Every month, predictions are generated using the CRISP model}. Currently, CRISP forecasts rebellion, insurgency, ethnic and religious violence, as well as domestic and international crises. CRISP is a suite of programs to aid CRISis Predictions. This report was created with CRISP package version 2013.12.16. The predictions identify onsets, as well as ongoing conflicts, and also provide estimates of the intensity of these events. To do so we construct (at least) three kinds of models for each event of interest.

November 2013 Crisp Predictions

Every month, predictions are generated using the CRISP model}. Currently, CRISP forecasts rebellion, insurgency, ethnic and religious violence, as well as domestic and international crises. CRISP is a suite of programs to aid CRISis Predictions. This report was created with CRISP package version 2013.11.10. The predictions identify onsets, as well as ongoing conflicts, and also provide estimates of the intensity of these events. To do so we construct (at least) three kinds of models for each event of interest.

Comparing GDELT and ICEWS Event Data

GDELT and ICEWS are arguably the largest event data collections in social science at the moment. During their brief existence they have also been among the most influential data sets in terms of their impact on academic research and policy advice. Yet, we know little to date about how these two repositories of event data compare to each other. Given the nascent existence of both GDELT and ICEWS event data, it is interesting to compare these two repositories of event data.

State Building and the Geography of Governance: Evidence from Satellites

Though weak states are associated with civil war, terrorism and other threats to
humanity, the social sciences provide scant insight into why states vary in their capacity to govern
across territory. This paper seeks to understand why states govern where they do in post-civil war
settings where leaders face stark geographic choices about extending state capacity across territory
in the face of resource constraints. We propose hypotheses derived from the distributive politics

Reciprocity, Democracy, and Transgressions of the Laws of War

Reciprocity is a central concept in the international cooperation literature: strategies of conditional cooperation can create self-enforcing agreements. Another theme in this literature is that democracies follow international law more scrupulously than non-democracies. This study examines these claims in the context of the Laws of War. Using a model developed for dyadic data, we estimate reciprocity directly, which is an improvement over the standard techniques used in conflict research.

Fast and Easy Imputation of Missing Data

The gold-standard approaches to missing data imputation are complicated and computationally expensive. We present a principled solution to this situation, using Copula distributions from which missing data may be quickly drawn. We compare this approach to other imputation techniques and show that it performs at least as well as less efficient approaches. Our results demonstrate that most applied researchers can achieve great speed improvements implementing a Copula-based imputation approach, while still maintaining the performance of other approaches to multiple imputation.

Anti-Government Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures affect Conflictual Behavior

How do social networks among anti-government actors affect the decision of ruling authorities to challenge its opposition? Current literature focuses on the dyadic relationship between the government and potential challengers. We shift the focus toward exploring how network structures affect the strategic behavior of political actors. We derive and examine testable hypotheses using latent space analysis to infer actors' positions vis-a-vis each other in the network. Network structure is examined and used to test our hypotheses with data on conflicts in Thailand 1997-2010.

Convincing State-Builders? Disaggregating International Legitimacy in Abkhazia

This study investigates de facto states’ internal legitimacy—people’s confidence in the entity itself, the regime, and institutions.  Using original data from a 2010 survey in Abkhazia, we operationalize this using respondent perceptions of security, welfare, and democracy. Our findings suggest that internal legitimacy is shaped by the key Weberian state-building function of monopoly of the legitimate use of force, as well as these entities’ ability to fulfill other aspects of the social contract. 

Do Democracies Attract Portfolio Investment?

For many, transnational capital is an important driving force of economic globalization. However, we know little about the political determinants for cross-border portfolio investments. Recent economic literature focuses upon information asymmetries. We move beyond this and intro- duce an explicitly political element into the study of international asset flows. Democratic institutions attract portfolio investments because they reduce the chances of predatory practices.

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