Predictions for May 2014 -- Country Watchlists

The current version of the CRISP package includes data up until April 2014. Forecasts here are for May 2014.

These hierarchical model forecasts are for the five EOIs in the current CRISP package version. Listed countries are either the three with the highest risk for the respective EOI, or all of the countries with a probability of occurrence higher than 0.9. Only countries that did not have an actual incidence of the EOI of interest are listed in the respective watch list.

December 2013 CRISP Predictions

Every month, predictions are generated using the CRISP model}. Currently, CRISP forecasts rebellion, insurgency, ethnic and religious violence, as well as domestic and international crises. CRISP is a suite of programs to aid CRISis Predictions. This report was created with CRISP package version 2013.12.16. The predictions identify onsets, as well as ongoing conflicts, and also provide estimates of the intensity of these events. To do so we construct (at least) three kinds of models for each event of interest.

November 2013 Crisp Predictions

Every month, predictions are generated using the CRISP model}. Currently, CRISP forecasts rebellion, insurgency, ethnic and religious violence, as well as domestic and international crises. CRISP is a suite of programs to aid CRISis Predictions. This report was created with CRISP package version 2013.11.10. The predictions identify onsets, as well as ongoing conflicts, and also provide estimates of the intensity of these events. To do so we construct (at least) three kinds of models for each event of interest.

Comparing GDELT and ICEWS Event Data

GDELT and ICEWS are arguably the largest event data collections in social science at the moment. During their brief existence they have also been among the most influential data sets in terms of their impact on academic research and policy advice. Yet, we know little to date about how these two repositories of event data compare to each other. Given the nascent existence of both GDELT and ICEWS event data, it is interesting to compare these two repositories of event data.

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