Every month, predictions are generated using the CRISP model}. Currently, CRISP forecasts rebellion, insurgency, ethnic and religious violence, as well as domestic and international crises. CRISP is a suite of programs to aid CRISis Predictions. This report was created with CRISP package version 2013.12.16. The predictions identify onsets, as well as ongoing conflicts, and also provide estimates of the intensity of these events. To do so we construct (at least) three kinds of models for each event of interest.
WardLab creates conflict predictions using Bayesian modeling and network analysis.